TECHNIQUE JUSTIFICATION FOR TECHNICAL CONDITION FORECASTING OF SPACE-LAUNCH AND TECHNICAL FACILITIES SYSTEMS BASED ON MONITORING DATA 

Dmitrienko Aleksey Gennadievich, doctor of technical sciences, associate professor, sub-department of rocket-space and airation instrument, Penza State University (40 Krasnaya street, Penza, Russia), rkap@pnzgu.ru
Nikolaev Andrey Valer'evich, acting director general, Scientific-research Institute of physical measurements (8/10 Volodarskogo street, Penza, Russia), info@niifi.ru
Mikheev Mihail Yur’evich, doctor of technical sciences, professor, head of sub-department of information technology and systems, Penza State Technological University (1a/11 Baydukova/Gagarina street, Penza, Russia), rector@penzgtu.ru
Tyurin Mihail Vladimirovich, candidate of technical sciences, senior researcher, Scientific-research Institute of physical measurements (8/10 Volodarskogo street, Penza, Russia), info@niifi.ru
Semochkina Irina Yur’evna, candidate of technical sciences, head of Educational-methodical management, Penza State Technological University (1a/11 Baydukova/Gagarina street, Penza, Russia), rector@penzgtu.ru

 629.78: 047.36

Background. Forecasting techniques for remaining safe operation limit on the basis of stochastic processes have been described. The work is aimed to choose the most advanced technique of technical condition forecasting for space-launch and technical facilities.
Materials and methods. Expanded analysis of techniques for technical condition forecasting has been carried out.
Results. It has been demonstrated that the most advanced technique of technical condition forecasting for space-launch and technical facilities is the aposterior technique of remaining safe operation limit evaluation using multifunction smart monitoring and control systems.
Conclusions. The selected technique of technical condition forecasting for the monitoring objects provides the most reliable evaluation of the remaining safe operation limit of the facility.

technical condition forecasting technique, space-launch and technical facilities, monitoring and control systems, Petri nets, Markovian analysis, failure rate, event tree